A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
